Top grocery markets to generate US$1.9tr in sales by 2023, IGD reports

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The leading 20 global grocery markets are set to generate an additional US$1.9tr in sales, growing by 28% between 2018 and 2023, new forecasts from global research organisation IGD predict.

IGD’s forecast anticipates:

  • Nearly half (44%) of the extra sales will be created in Asia, which will add more than Africa, Europe and Latin America combined
  • Asia as a region will contain seven of the world’s largest grocery markets by 2023. These will have a combined market size of US$3.8tr
  • Europe will be the second most important region in terms of additional sales between 2018 and 2023. It is forecast to generate US$322.0bn in new sales in the timeframe

Global market growth 2018 – 2023

RankCountry2018US$bn2023 US$bnTotal change 2018-2023CAGR 2018-2023
1China1,395.71,822.930.6%5.5%
2USA1,494.41,726.415.5%2.9%
3India510.5869.570.3%11.2%
4Japan459.0479.74.5%0.9%
5Brazil328.4469.743.0%7.4%
6Russia297.7362.721.8%4.0%
7Germany296.0341.115.2%2.9%
8France275.6307.611.6%2.2%
9United Kingdom264.1303.314.8%2.8%
10Mexico203.1268.732.3%5.8%
11Italy212.6231.69.0%1.7%
12Turkey118.4223.488.7%13.5%
13Indonesia133.3191.743.8%7.5%
14Nigeria104.9172.264.2%10.4%
15South Korea124.3155.725.3%4.6%
16Spain133.2149.912.5%2.4%
17Pakistan91.2140.353.9%9.0%
18Canada102.7120.217.0%3.2%
19Australia96.8111.815.5%2.9%
20Bangladesh63.9109.371.0%11.3%
TOTAL6,705.68,557.827.6%

Source: IGD research

IGD predicts Asia will see the strongest real growth – from population growth or consumers spending more on grocery – and is set to account for 47% of the additional spend between 2018 and 2023. After Asia, the growth opportunities provided by Latin America, with the exception of Argentina and Venezuela, and North America are likely to provide a number of opportunities for retailers and manufacturers between now and 2023. Looking at the underlying drivers of growth in each region IGD expects inflation to be the most significant factor driving growth over the next five years.

Commenting on growth in Europe, head of retail insight EMEA Jon Wright said: “Five key countries will stand out in the next five years – France, Germany, Russia, Turkey and the UK – and these are set to account for nearly two-thirds of all additional sales generated between 2018 and 2023. The continued strength of these markets will, therefore, dictate the growth outlook for Europe as a whole.