Asia will be biggest engine of growth in the grocery market, IGD reports

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Asia will continue to be the biggest engine of growth in the grocery market and its sales will exceed that of Europe and North America combined within five years, according to new forecasts from research organisation IGD.

Global growth will be driven by a combination of inflation, population and rising incomes.

Highlights from IGD’s latest global grocery forecasts to 2021 include:

  • Asia’s grocery market is set to increase by $1073bn, an annual compound growth rate 6.3%
  • China will extend its lead over the USA as the world’s biggest grocery market with India in third place closing the gap
  • The fastest growth rate will be in Africa and the Middle East, albeit from a relatively small base
  • Europe and North America will enjoy a similar annual compound growth rate of 3.5% and 3.6% respectively

Joanne Denney-Finch, IGD chief executive, said: “Although there are several risks to the global economy and a danger of new barriers to trade in particular, we are optimistic that these can be surmounted. We expect all regions to grow their grocery markets over the next five years presenting big opportunities globally for manufacturers and retailers.”

On Asia, Denney-Finch said: “Asia’s grocery market will continue to prosper with China remaining comfortably in first place and three other Asian countries within the top 10. Millions more people across Asia will become middle class and many more consumer goods companies will view this region as the key to their growth strategy.”

On the MINT countries, Denney-Finch said: “Provided there is reasonable political stability, we expect the recent, fast-paced growth of the MINT countries (Mexico, Indonesia, Nigeria and Turkey) to keep attracting high levels of investment from retailers and manufacturers alike. Nigeria continues to impress as the fastest growing of all large-scale grocery markets in the world.”

 

 

Top 15 largest grocery markets in 2021

 

Country 2021 value ($bn) CAGR (%)
1 China 1,612 5.5
2 USA 1,311 3.6
3 India 735 9.1
4 Brazil 465 7.5
5 Japan 399 0.7
6 Russia 391 5.4
7 United Kingdom 307 1.8
8 Indonesia 305 8.7
9 Mexico 299 6.0
10 Germany 289 2.0
11 France 281 2.6
12 Nigeria 268 11.3
13 Turkey 255 7.6
14 Egypt 209 11.3
15 Italy 209 1.8