Adobe has released its Adobe Digital Index 2013 Online Shopping Forecast, which focuses on predictions for this year’s holiday shopping season, defined as the entire months of November and December.
In Europe, the company’s data analysis predicts 12.4% of total online sales will come from mobile devices, a 68% year-over-year (YoY) increase. This growth greatly exceeds mobile holiday sales growth in the US, which will hit 14% of online holiday sales, or 40% YoY growth. If these two growth rates hold the same for 2014, European mobile sales as a percentage of all online holiday sales will equal or slightly exceed US mobile sales.
For the US, Adobe expects consumers to spend more online this holiday season, up 12% from last year, with the largest online shopping day, CyberMonday (2 December 2013), hitting $2.27bn, up 15% from 2012.
The highest grossing online shopping day in Europe is forecast to be 9 December 2013 where the daily sales will be 2.74 times the 2013 average daily online sales. The highest grossing week of online shopping in Europe is predicted to be from 9-13 December 2013. For the entire holiday shopping season, Europe will see a 1.42 times increase in 2013 average daily online sales.
“The rapid growth in mobile shopping across Europe should be a very clear signal to retailers that a sound mobile strategy is not a luxury, but a vital part of their future success,” said Mark Phibbs, vice president of EMEA marketing, Adobe. “And while tablets have certainly stolen the mobile spotlight and often generate three to five times more online sales for retailers than do smartphones, in every European country we analysed, retail transactions on smartphones are growing faster than retail transactions on tablets. While this phenomenon is certainly aided by the recent introduction of smartphones with larger screens, it’s a reminder to retailers that a mobile strategy must include smartphones and not just tablets.”
Additional predictions and findings around the 2013 holiday shopping season
- United Kingdom: the highest grossing online shopping day in the UK will be 2 December 2013, where online sales will be 2.18 times the 2013 average daily online sales. The UK is projected to have the highest mobile share of online sales during the holidays of any European country analysed with 20.4% (i.e. 20.4% of all online holiday sales come from a mobile device), well above the projected European average of 12.4% and the US projected average of 14.4%.
- France: the highest grossing online shopping day in France is 7 January 2014, where online sales will be 2.45 times the 2013 average daily online sales. France is the only European country analysed that will have a peak shopping day outside of the holiday shopping season. France has some catching up to do with only 9.5% of online holiday sales projected to come from mobile.
- Germany: the highest grossing online shopping day in Germany will be 8 December 2013, where online sales will be 3.03 times the 2013 average daily online sales. Germany is projected see 10.6% of online holiday sales coming from mobile.
- Nordics: the highest grossing online shopping day in the Nordics will be 9 December 2013 where online sales will be 3.63 times the 2013 average daily online sales. The Nordics are projected to have a healthy 14.7% of online holiday sales coming from mobile.
- Netherlands: the highest grossing online shopping day in the Netherlands will be 16 December 2013, where online sales will be 1.74 times the 2013 average daily online sales. In the Netherlands, 10.5% of online holiday sales are projected to come from mobile.
- United States: with only 27 days between Thanksgiving and Christmas (Thanksgiving marks the beginning of holiday sales in the US, whereas holiday sales in Europe start at the beginning of November), the data indicates that the late start will cost US retailers $1.5bn in potential sales. Despite the shortest US holiday shopping season since 2002, and despite concerns over gridlock in Washington and the recent government shutdown, Adobe expects strong growth of US online sales on Thanksgiving (November 28th) with $1.1bn (up 21% YoY), on Black Friday (29 November 2013) with $1.6bn (up 17% YoY), and on Cyber Monday (2 December 2013) with $2.27bn (up 15% YoY). Cyber Monday in the US will see 3.5 times the average 2013 daily online sales. For the entire holiday season in the US, the average increase over 2013 daily online sales is projected to be 1.2 times.